Us Politics · resolved market
25% Japan tariff in effect by August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x663377b78ec981e428ffd0b9add02b23ef535d0894d5cc99303b9f565dde2ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,358$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 77c | 1,017$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes | 53c | 501.86$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 62c | 482.41$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 56c | 406.55$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 380.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 340.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 7c | 337.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 40c | 305$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 39c | 303.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 12c | 236.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…313bbacked Yes | 53c | 188.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…00a4backed No | 51c | 154.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 118.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 100.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…44debacked Yes | 42c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…4443backed Yes | 31c | 59.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked No | 71c | 44.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 53c | 42.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…7f23backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3629…ff86backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…f34cbacked No | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 36.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…dffebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…3c3ebacked No | 48c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…cba4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.