MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x663d131dcb3bbe1b4a9f311b7aa96338eb15410a80ac30054c5fa296f9553343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 7,276$3,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,713.37 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 7,223$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,818.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 48c | 1,315$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.73 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,101$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.32 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.2 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 643$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.36 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 410.36$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 364.62$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 338.64$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.48 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 53c | 244.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 183.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Over | 52c | 161.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 47c | 149.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 71c | 116$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 45c | 98.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 49c | 91.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 29c | 82.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 31c | 79.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 45c | 59.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 55.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Under | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 51.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 48.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 50c | 48.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 52c | 37.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 52c | 34.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 61c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.