MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6f49f7639953fb1f863b510c2081bd80b3c52c41446336a879d5f326ad0ee1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 3,846$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…69a9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 3,123$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets | 61c | 2,817$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.57 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed New York Mets | 62c | 2,774$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 2,419$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 61c | 1,577$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.96 | 1,083 | 48.1%521 W · 562 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 59c | 1,275$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.79 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 61c | 825.67$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.41 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 804.45$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.69 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed New York Mets | 61c | 779$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.81 | 928 | 54%501 W · 427 L | +22.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 61c | 461.02$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Mets | 61c | 390$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked New York Mets | 58c | 356.56$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets | 61c | 237.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 230.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 164.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 61c | 148.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 129.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 114.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed New York Mets | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 102.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Mets | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed New York Mets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Mets | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,839 | 53.9%992 W · 847 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed New York Mets | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 469 | 59.5%279 W · 190 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed New York Mets | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 58.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked New York Mets | 59c | 55.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 488 | 53.7%262 W · 226 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 46.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 43.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,734 | 50.4%874 W · 860 L | +57.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed New York Mets | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 248 | 44.8%111 W · 137 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed New York Mets | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked New York Mets | 72c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked New York Mets | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed New York Mets | 62c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.