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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f03…766dbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c3,846$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18d4…69a9backed Milwaukee Brewers39c3,123$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.973450%17 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets61c2,817$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.571,59348.6%774 W · 819 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cc…a081backed New York Mets62c2,774$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.196546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Milwaukee Brewers41c2,419$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006749.3%33 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New York Mets61c1,577$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.961,08348.1%521 W · 562 L-12.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets59c1,275$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.798,45147.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L+81.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets61c825.67$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.413,10748.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers38c804.45$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6911,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Mets61c779$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8192854%501 W · 427 L+22.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets61c461.02$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.87,04650.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L+2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Mets61c390$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.11,67149.1%820 W · 851 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked New York Mets58c356.56$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2916846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Milwaukee Brewers41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12319934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers39c282.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.013,85742.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L+3.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a0…c52bbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023145.5%105 W · 126 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed Milwaukee Brewers39c240$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.63046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed New York Mets61c237.51$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6385949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers39c230.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c164.93$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.322,31951.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L+26.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets61c148.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.411,89449.3%934 W · 960 L+24.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers40c138$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,88952.9%1,000 W · 889 L+15.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers20c129.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6924843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.282636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers38c114.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed New York Mets62c112.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.967449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Milwaukee Brewers39c102.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.162839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Mets57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4399947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed New York Mets59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4134653.2%184 W · 162 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed New York Mets61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21,83953.9%992 W · 847 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed New York Mets60c73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.217452.3%91 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c99…d91abacked Milwaukee Brewers39c72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2112235.2%43 W · 79 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5246959.5%279 W · 190 L+0.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed New York Mets62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5235353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Milwaukee Brewers29c58.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1729549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked New York Mets59c55.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8248853.7%262 W · 226 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Milwaukee Brewers39c46.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981,22454%661 W · 563 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Milwaukee Brewers44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026940.5%109 W · 160 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers40c43.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3411,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets59c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711,73450.4%874 W · 860 L+57.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c77…bde7backed New York Mets80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54052.5%21 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024844.8%111 W · 137 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed New York Mets53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.648239%32 W · 50 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad6f…cc7cbacked New York Mets72c22.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.378051.3%41 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked New York Mets62c22.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5889950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed New York Mets62c20.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8120654.4%112 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.85,84843.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L-189.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.