NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6657d82a6e4b84de5cb8074f350dcb6abb8ceec103e844f1788aa5ac7c4d0ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 53c | 44,248$23,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,450.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 47c | 31,639$14,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,768.43 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 10,140$4,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,425.62 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 54c | 6,028$3,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,254.85 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 5,052$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.72 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Over | 44c | 4,854$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.71 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 46c | 4,261$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.94 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 47c | 1,204$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.98 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 494.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.01 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 300.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 56c | 271$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 234.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 46c | 121.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 47c | 97.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 47c | 93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Under | 56c | 82.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 65.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…0951backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. SharksLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.