NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2c9b04a3d39f27c75cb2fd14aba06a3700079fc6bb06342f124421912ce675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks | 58c | 7,144$4,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.29 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 42c | 4,567$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.84 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Sharks | 58c | 4,043$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.94 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 42c | 1,555$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Lightning | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 42c | 1,439$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.57 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Lightning | 45c | 583$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.77 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Lightning | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 56c | 349.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 44c | 319$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Lightning | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…657ebacked Lightning | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lightning | 44c | 216.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 42c | 164.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Sharks | 58c | 147.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Sharks | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Sharks | 55c | 112.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lightning | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Sharks | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Sharks | 55c | 89.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Sharks | 58c | 85.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Sharks | 54c | 72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Sharks | 54c | 71.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Lightning | 46c | 65.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 42c | 65.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Sharks | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Sharks | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Sharks | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Sharks | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Sharks | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Lightning | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lightning | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 43c | 24.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. SharksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.