NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Sharks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdeaf16161b6f3fd2fe35a8c8a351e3b98c07e2508e5d22f3b3411459723ef94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $473,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $495,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning | 65c | 241,478$156,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,706.14 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Sharks | 35c | 100,000$35,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,000 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Sharks | 35c | 100,000$35,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,000 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Sharks | 35c | 36,009$12,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,643.11 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 66c | 35,047$23,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,916.08 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Sharks | 35c | 20,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 65c | 18,528$12,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.15 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Sharks | 34c | 11,730$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,988.18 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…4d03backed Sharks | 34c | 10,294$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 67c | 9,742$6,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,232.19 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 68c | 9,480$6,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.34 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Sharks | 10c | 9,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 66c | 8,513$5,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.51 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Sharks | 35c | 8,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Sharks | 34c | 8,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Sharks | 34c | 7,353$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Sharks | 35c | 7,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning | 66c | 6,244$4,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.82 | 269 | 55.8%150 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Sharks | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Sharks | 0c | 5,853$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 66c | 5,640$3,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.54 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Sharks | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lightning | 66c | 4,500$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 66c | 4,459$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.17 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sharks | 35c | 4,286$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 65c | 3,434$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.75 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 65c | 3,389$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.9 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Sharks | 35c | 3,317$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.9 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Sharks | 34c | 3,218$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.71 | 510 | 44.5%227 W · 283 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Sharks | 36c | 2,522$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.92 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Sharks | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning | 66c | 2,500$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.5 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.46 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Lightning | 64c | 2,400$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Sharks | 1c | 2,248$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 145 | 8.3%12 W · 133 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Sharks | 15c | 2,152$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Sharks | 34c | 2,100$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 248 | 45.2%112 W · 136 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning | 66c | 2,017$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.78 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sharks | 19c | 1,922$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.19 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Lightning | 65c | 1,883$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Sharks | 33c | 1,806$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Sharks | 34c | 1,511$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.71 | 288 | 53.1%153 W · 135 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Sharks | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Sharks | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Sharks | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sharks | 42c | 1,380$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.43 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Sharks | 37c | 1,372$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.18 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sharks | 34c | 1,363$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.42 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Lightning | 63c | 1,360$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.58 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Sharks | 35c | 1,300$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sharks | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Lightning | 66c | 1,113$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.44 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Sharks | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Sharks | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Sharks | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Sharks | 34c | 999.93$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lightning | 75c | 994.68$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.67 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Sharks | 34c | 994.12$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 34c | 908.74$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…aa79backed Sharks | 37c | 810.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 67c | 800$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sharks | 34c | 768$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.26 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 65c | 725.67$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Lightning | 67c | 604.48$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -15.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Sharks | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lightning | 74c | 596.65$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sharks | 2c | 593$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe070…593cbacked Sharks | 37c | 582$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lightning | 65c | 579$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.65 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Sharks | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…1e5abacked Sharks | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…83cbbacked Sharks | 37c | 497$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Sharks | 33c | 496$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Sharks | 34c | 485.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 67c | 476.12$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…7dcdbacked Lightning | 63c | 459.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…4f77backed Sharks | 34c | 421.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 386 | 45.1%174 W · 212 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdede…149ebacked Lightning | 64c | 412.19$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…16bfbacked Lightning | 64c | 398.44$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Lightning | 65c | 395.41$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Sharks | 5c | 387.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0143backed Lightning | 63c | 386$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…bdddbacked Sharks | 37c | 381$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…a5d7backed Lightning | 64c | 361.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sharks | 9c | 345.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Sharks | 37c | 342.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Sharks | 34c | 334.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…6448backed Lightning | 63c | 327$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Sharks | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…f3efbacked Sharks | 37c | 317$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 65c | 310.15$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Sharks | 36c | 306$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Lightning | 66c | 301.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed Sharks | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Lightning | 66c | 299.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…d049backed Sharks | 33c | 299.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Sharks | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Sharks | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Sharksthis page
- Lightning vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.