MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665864ee9e1e82959dccc0279b926833a441a774b4640c680d6c64d34b879f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Twins, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef3b…a338backed Twins | 46c | 26,500$12,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…737fbacked Guardians | 54c | 25,350$13,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,689 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Guardians | 55c | 5,571$3,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.02 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 45c | 4,985$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.43 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Twins | 45c | 4,034$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.7 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ea32backed Guardians | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Guardians | 47c | 3,826$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.96 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 45c | 2,879$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 54c | 2,858$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.03 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Twins | 46c | 2,198$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.81 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Guardians | 52c | 1,204$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.61 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…fb6fbacked Guardians | 54c | 1,150$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Twins | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Guardians | 55c | 908.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 52c | 834$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.17 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 46c | 827.23$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Twins | 68c | 409.01$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 46c | 394.65$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.69 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Guardians | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 53c | 241.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Guardians | 54c | 214$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Guardians | 55c | 195.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Guardians | 50c | 189.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Twins | 47c | 173.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Twins | 48c | 128.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 54c | 109.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Guardians | 56c | 104.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 56c | 53.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Guardians | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Twins | 46c | 45.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Twins | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Twins | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Twins | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Guardians | 55c | 22.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Guardians | 55c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.