Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66933a0b33771d2aa37ed029f7888ec9be0481ef2093de74450d1cee4df32b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 415.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed No | 68c | 294.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 255.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 214.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 29c | 210.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 191$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 77c | 182.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 162.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 145.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 61c | 135.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 67c | 126.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 74c | 98.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 21c | 88.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 88.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 27c | 82.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 36c | 82.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 78.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 78c | 76.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 29c | 76.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 17c | 74.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 27c | 74.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 72.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 71.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 69.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 67.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 62.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 62c | 62.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 29c | 60.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 59.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 57.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 56.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 48.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 64c | 48.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 47.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 44.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 80c | 43.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 37.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 36.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 29c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 35.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 26.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…4e9dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 72c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.