Earnings · resolved market
Will BNY (BK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b01858d6c1fb1823060cd818a25318f2824928353d4df87c96523a3690b2d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 6c | 4,536$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.28 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 15c | 2,002$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…9a3bbacked No | 11c | 1,404$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +352%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 9c | 1,150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa7…0971backed No | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…3f0fbacked No | 11c | 761.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 4c | 748.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…21cdbacked No | 10c | 623.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 577.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 5c | 560.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 5c | 499.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 7c | 462.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 6c | 423.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 7c | 349.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 6c | 341.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 322.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 6c | 309.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 7c | 292.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 8c | 287.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 9c | 224.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 217.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…6433backed No | 6c | 216.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 9c | 215.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 9c | 203.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 199.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed No | 10c | 189$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 185.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 9c | 185.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c6fbacked No | 11c | 175.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 9c | 139.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 121.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…290abacked No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked No | 13c | 78.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.