CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d8abf4a21a4b757d96e749bb74ea4f28372e9774c21319326470fdaf62f92e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Astralis, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 2,050$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 2,020$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.8 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Astralis | 38c | 1,743$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.35 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 1,455$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.4 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Astralis | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis | 45c | 1,158$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis | 43c | 1,154$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Astralis | 34c | 1,118$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.1 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 820.11$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis | 27c | 770$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 666$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 533.58$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 520.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.66 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 26c | 506.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 478.67$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 460.88$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.79 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 398.31$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Astralis | 21c | 288.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Astralis | 27c | 225.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 202.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…2090backed Astralis | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…2a68backed Astralis | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Astralis | 32c | 174.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 164.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Astralis | 32c | 156.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…e7e6backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed Astralis | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Astralis | 60c | 81.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 68.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Astralis | 55c | 63.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…3627backed Astralis | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 50.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Astralis | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 39.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 206 | 59.2%122 W · 84 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.