CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b38341f7d8ee03ed2d072e8548270f96fd4f46341f015948183881c490b4fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 3,410$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.52 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,191$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.14 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 2,067$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Astralis | 79c | 1,720$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.48 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,703$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.17 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Astralis | 37c | 1,332$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.35 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,318$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.73 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Astralis | 44c | 1,144$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Astralis | 75c | 1,073$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.24 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Astralis | 58c | 869.22$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.02 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Astralis | 56c | 819.73$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.73 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 789.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 755.83$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Astralis | 44c | 741.73$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.73 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 584.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 377 | 52%196 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 545.16$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Astralis | 54c | 487.94$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 386.07$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis | 55c | 369$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Astralis | 41c | 338.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 249 | 35.7%89 W · 160 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed Astralis | 50c | 325.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 215.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Astralis | 48c | 186.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 179.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 131.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Astralis | 57c | 122.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Astralis | 27c | 95.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…30e9backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 92.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 35c | 92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 84.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Astralis | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 250 | 70.8%177 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Astralis | 64c | 58.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…63febacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 48.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Astralis | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 45.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Astralis | 41c | 31.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Astralis | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 28.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Astralis | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 331 | 56.5%187 W · 144 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Astralis | 58c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.