Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d9e75d69ba96945bad40b138022be1d1c464c75fb936ab2e996063750e4631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 32c | 885$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 48c | 732.73$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 16c | 614.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 57c | 551.65$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 357.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 28c | 279.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 260$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 216$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 203.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 175.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 43c | 174.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 158$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 25c | 157.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 16c | 154.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 144.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 133.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 43c | 127.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 121.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 24c | 107.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 104.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 100.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 98.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 90.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 90.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 37c | 70.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 38c | 67.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 65.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 62.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 62.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 52c | 50.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 43c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 46.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 40c | 44.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 67c | 42.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 42.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 42c | 41.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 41.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 40.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…567dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 39.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 37.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 36.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…af67backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 79c | 34.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 48c | 28.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 49c | 27.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 65c | 19.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 79c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.