Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc661c81b017540abcb069da8f079d749afc6c1f3b38fd8a124fdf03e4ae724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 44c | 1,098$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.94 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 967.84$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.84 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 667.14$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 341.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 326.8$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 51c | 300.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 259.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 66c | 245.97$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 21c | 236.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 221.66$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 207.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 196.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 188.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 175.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed Yes | 22c | 172.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 165.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 163.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 24c | 157.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 157.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 147.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 142.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 139.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 122$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 116.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 68c | 105.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 96.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 81.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 73.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 29c | 70.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 59c | 63.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 49.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 28c | 49.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes | 54c | 40.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 39.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 33c | 35.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 47c | 34.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 42c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 62c | 28.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed Yes | 45c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 43c | 26.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.