Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6700db92e3f55212ca91eab24f9423fd35ab18a36f640a78f95c614a3b009ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 58c | 1,894$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,475$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.96 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,124$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.8 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 42c | 1,064$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.87 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 51c | 349.96$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 323.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 162.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 42c | 144.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 42c | 108.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 275 | 37.1%102 W · 173 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…9ac7backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 67.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 40c | 55.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 59c | 45.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 45.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 42c | 40.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 45c | 29.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Over | 42c | 28.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 55c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 55c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 256 | 41%105 W · 151 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 55c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 56c | 19.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: FK Austria Wien O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: MH Beitar Jerusalem O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: Team to AdvanceFK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)MH Beitar Jerusalem won
- Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-1.5)FK Austria Wien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.