Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207ed1395a9a2c29f48651b65c08c5fec2464680714434baeead8bafa63d8bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 2,905$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.98 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Under | 48c | 2,066$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.25 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 1,904$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.64 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 25c | 878.09$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +305.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 34c | 870.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 775.52$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 696.95$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 404$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.67 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79e…d969backed Under | 38c | 353.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 49c | 343.95$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Over | 60c | 320$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 74c | 235$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 56c | 190.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 62c | 162.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 77c | 111.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Under | 62c | 97.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 35c | 84.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 77c | 58.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 54.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 54.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a07…267fbacked Over | 39c | 48.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…9633backed Over | 73c | 44.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 43.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 79c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 80c | 31.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 52c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…5e33backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 77c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 77c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: FK Austria Wien O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: MH Beitar Jerusalem O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem: Team to AdvanceFK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)MH Beitar Jerusalem won
- Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-1.5)FK Austria Wien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.