Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x670fc7629d885435d55eb454cfc304c87859b132f93e0f14bd01732f8079a755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 447.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 295.53$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f2…99debacked Yes | 48c | 168.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 165.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 50c | 146.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 146.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 50c | 142.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 141.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 49c | 124.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 43c | 119.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 119.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 104.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1f91backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 48c | 99.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 95.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 90.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 54c | 82.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 71.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 50c | 60.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 51c | 54.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 50c | 48.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 45.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 27c | 42.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed No | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…5886backed Yes | 50c | 38.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 36.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 51c | 32.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 51c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 49c | 28.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Yes | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 51c | 20.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.