La Liga · resolved market
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6724f08020b8402351b414d9cf99d96426ca0b19b27976ae476a811ab9f0acff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Over | 28c | 17,688$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 17c | 5,776$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.88 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 77c | 2,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 101 | 68.3%69 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 1,668$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.43 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…3b73backed Under | 80c | 1,125$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 16c | 961.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 15c | 779.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 17c | 294.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 440 | 39.3%173 W · 267 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 17c | 218.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 214.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 80c | 199.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 16c | 168.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Over | 7c | 167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 80c | 134.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…24fbbacked Under | 80c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: CA Osasuna (-2.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)CA Osasuna won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)CA Osasuna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.