NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6729e0b28cae638739a53f95a326a9cb0979d31c300fcdd6d8ad291e78ca5dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Timberwolves, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Timberwolves | 49c | 22,443$11,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,057.2 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 52c | 12,755$6,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,122.56 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 50c | 10,208$5,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,062.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Timberwolves | 45c | 1,850$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.5 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 32c | 1,068$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 51c | 803.47$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Jazz | 53c | 639$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.33 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Jazz | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e57…2bf6backed Jazz | 54c | 298.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.14 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Jazz | 56c | 269.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves | 44c | 163$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Timberwolves | 15c | 150.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Jazz | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Jazz | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Jazz | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Timberwolves | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 67.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Timberwolves | 44c | 62.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Timberwolves | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Jazz | 55c | 53.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 48.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Jazz | 53c | 43.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…a479backed Jazz | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 44c | 35.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jazz | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Jazz | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Jazz won
- Timberwolves vs. JazzJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.