NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b748bc8f0ddd3f06979a9ffe664a8ce9818bb1516d02aca87fa95ff5fbb0579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Timberwolves, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Timberwolves | 53c | 45,507$24,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,334.2 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,599.99 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 47c | 15,879$7,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,415.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Jazz | 52c | 15,558$8,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,467.06 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Timberwolves | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 46c | 12,249$5,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,594.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Timberwolves | 50c | 11,737$5,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,878.94 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Jazz | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Jazz | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Jazz | 52c | 7,572$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.44 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Jazz | 52c | 7,150$3,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 5,030$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.04 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 51c | 1,955$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.56 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 48c | 1,641$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz | 45c | 1,001$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 49c | 986.71$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz | 52c | 920.83$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Jazz | 49c | 796$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.96 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 77c | 531$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Jazz | 49c | 510.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.21 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 441.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Jazz | 49c | 393.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Jazz | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 50c | 303$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Jazz | 64c | 183$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 156.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jazz | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 49c | 142.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Jazz | 76c | 86.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jazz | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Jazz | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Jazz | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Jazz | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Jazz | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves | 41c | 53.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Jazz | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Jazz | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 48.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Jazz | 49c | 46.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 40.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Timberwolves | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jazz | 46c | 22.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…dc41backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Jazz won
- Timberwolves vs. JazzJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.