NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x511ed75d0c9ecb47ef544a6ff85fb383eba7031d3441bff993b231109eeda363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Under | 49c | 5,521$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.14 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,931$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 3,411$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 1,869$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.63 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 47c | 1,458$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.95 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.79 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 965.6$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 827$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.96 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 827$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.96 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 526$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.22 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 423.01$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.34 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Over | 64c | 360.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 76c | 258$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…99b4backed Over | 50c | 195.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 57c | 183$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 177.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 36c | 97.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Over | 52c | 96.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…0a40backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 33.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 49c | 21.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Under | 51c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Jazz won
- Timberwolves vs. JazzJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.