AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6742fb4826c1d85fb8a14346f68c3aee1042385f7a2c33f803061f8a53178712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 70c | 1,463$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.53 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 5c | 599.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes | 80c | 312$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…376abacked Yes | 79c | 298.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…e0cabacked Yes | 75c | 228$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 29c | 185$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 71c | 185$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 171.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 157.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 21c | 132.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 13c | 131.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 121.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 120.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…e318backed No | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…e4e1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…c7ffbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 80c | 93.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 70c | 84.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes | 27c | 78.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed No | 60c | 66.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 22c | 63.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 60c | 49.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…b598backed Yes | 26c | 47.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 65c | 45.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 57c | 34.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 38c | 30.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfebf…a72dbacked Yes | 78c | 28.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…9936backed Yes | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.