AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67440185a5638476f582c84b92947098b164bf2b6717a25cbd2c4047b575776f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ee2…91afbacked No | 62c | 646.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 77c | 304.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 59c | 190$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 13c | 155.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 124.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…5602backed Yes | 56c | 100.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 90.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes | 55c | 88.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked No | 46c | 80.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f87…134dbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…a45ebacked Yes | 17c | 72.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 19c | 55.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 19c | 54.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…c920backed Yes | 54c | 42.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d57…3c1bbacked Yes | 78c | 34.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…4cb0backed Yes | 76c | 34.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…8d25backed Yes | 72c | 31.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 17.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…0ae2backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?No won
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.