Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x676991e8353740cf0e43e868d03d403b661bd373ce882de2e2db8280474e8862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 2,132$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 492.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 470.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 408.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 314.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 77c | 277.41$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 20c | 260.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 58c | 252.2$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 246.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 216.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 8c | 214.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 199.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 186.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 165.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 152.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 149.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 134.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ec8ebacked Yes | 41c | 133.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 123$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 117.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 112.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 109.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 104.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 101.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 95.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 18c | 84.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 82.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 81.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 77c | 71.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 27c | 68.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 63c | 63.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 76c | 62.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 56.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 55.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 51.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…6108backed Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 65c | 36.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…f52ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 34.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 33.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 40c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed No | 59c | 24.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked No | 58c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.