Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be54628924141f13d57e4cb000c05b1868f05b4b0321f6401cf20ed367738c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,657$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.14 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 36c | 648.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.13 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 76c | 627.23$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 255 | 42.4%108 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 557.18$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 423.36$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 72c | 409.95$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 56c | 314$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 241.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 45c | 228.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 225.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 191.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 174.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 166.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 165.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 58c | 165$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 60c | 157.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 156.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…5bb2backed Yes | 60c | 145.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 138.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…0bd6backed Yes | 37c | 122.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 122.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 694 | 35.3%245 W · 449 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 92.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 90.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 39c | 90.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 76.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 75.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 74.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 73c | 68.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 44c | 62.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 62.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 27c | 56.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 64c | 56.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 55.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 301 | 26.9%81 W · 220 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 46.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 41c | 46.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 43.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 216 | 71.3%154 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 42.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 43c | 41.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 41.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…3df1backed No | 44c | 41.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…6108backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 36.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 44c | 36.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…f657backed No | 32c | 32.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 65%145 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 46c | 32.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 31.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…3676backed Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…2ffcbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 78c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 63c | 22.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 20.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 161 | 65.8%106 W · 55 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 275 | 49.8%137 W · 138 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.