Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67dfcb372506da5ab440e34c5d1784b000d80b0279101d470973cf1eb37adc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,400 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa00c…7aa1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…586abacked Yes | 0c | 9,673$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,466$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,273$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,362$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,218$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 9c | 814.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 620.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 2c | 502.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 3c | 366.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 299.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 281.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 252.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 154.93$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 149.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 11c | 141$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 67c | 139.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 90.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 78.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 76.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 28c | 74.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 36c | 69.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…deb9backed Yes | 26c | 56.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 32c | 55.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 215 | 34%73 W · 142 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 47.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 39.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 38.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 67c | 37.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 38c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 75c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.