Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6be6b89e922074fe25446f6be152906c6dc90e5c878ffa7f27c890da505f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,037 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa00c…7aa1backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 6,164$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,558$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 1,276$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 29c | 1,202$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.03 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…6a26backed Yes | 72c | 1,081$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 961.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 60c | 940.64$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.32 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 52c | 685.96$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 59c | 654.85$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 599.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 51c | 589.41$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 525$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 40c | 461.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…4879backed Yes | 4c | 355.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 352.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.04 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 76c | 333$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 38c | 331.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 324.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 32c | 307$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 61c | 303.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 288.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 243.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 235.82$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed No | 59c | 233.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 5c | 204.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 24c | 193.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 186.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 172.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 28c | 168.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 71c | 161$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 51c | 154.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 62c | 150.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 74c | 148.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 142.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 10c | 131.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 29c | 131.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 19c | 121.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 117.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 47c | 116.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 43c | 115.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 44c | 109.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 51c | 107.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…c79dbacked Yes | 15c | 106.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 30c | 100.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 42c | 99.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Yes | 27c | 90.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 40c | 89.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 40c | 89.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 51c | 76.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 38c | 74.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 38c | 71.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…fd54backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…63cfbacked No | 30c | 68.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 38c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…33f2backed Yes | 54c | 61.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 18c | 61.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 52c | 60.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 58.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 46c | 55.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…3689backed No | 50c | 54.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 33c | 54.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 51.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 25c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…34d1backed No | 54c | 48.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 57c | 44.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed Yes | 28c | 44.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 24c | 43.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 26c | 39.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 46c | 39.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…364bbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…3936backed Yes | 51c | 37.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 30c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 35.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 67c | 32.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.