Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e088e38283fbba66c71d697f068ce69615a3f80302a163696a058541cbbff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 36c | 1,233$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.72 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 859.27$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 32c | 630.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.97 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 69c | 464$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.71 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 60c | 314.93$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 32c | 243.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 36c | 173.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…3134backed Yes | 67c | 156.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 54c | 147.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 14c | 139.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 134.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 66c | 131.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 56c | 124.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 61c | 120.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 22c | 117.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 117.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 47c | 116$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 70c | 100.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 78c | 97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 16c | 92.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 72c | 57.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 63c | 46.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c7…c6bdbacked No | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 35.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Yes | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked No | 52c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.