Fifa International · resolved market
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Sudan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6829e18df5629f7b6472ace435e5d0944b1b48e0d583e79bbefccde7b3ce0a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 15,810$9,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,142.25 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…249ebacked Yes | 46c | 6,999$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 40c | 3,538$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…1bd3backed Yes | 24c | 3,499$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.76 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 67c | 2,122$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.6 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 66c | 2,095$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.29 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc849…204dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,903$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…dbd6backed Yes | 57c | 1,747$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,338$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.59 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 51c | 979.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.77 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 51c | 950.15$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.68 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Yes | 49c | 900$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 741.66$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.26 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Yes | 57c | 351.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 65c | 311.43$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Yes | 46c | 290$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 223.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Yes | 23c | 170.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 44c | 158.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…90d7backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 44c | 145.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…8c56backed Yes | 35c | 138.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 52c | 116.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 51.1%91 W · 87 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 10c | 106.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Yes | 24c | 102.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 31c | 100.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…1511backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 19c | 68.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 34c | 58.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Yes | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…2020backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Yes | 38c | 50.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…6455backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 66c | 37.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…bb98backed No | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Sudan end in a draw?this page
- Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-28?No won
- Will Sudan win on 2025-12-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.