World Politics · resolved market
Will Carney visit Halifax by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685fadabe12548024bccee2291bb9fa1bd879fd2b1fddb4a0a6e02715be59535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 24c | 547.23$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 208.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 191$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 75c | 179$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 166.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 47c | 108.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 44c | 100.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 26c | 95.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…b263backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 73.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9505…240abacked Yes | 28c | 46.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.