MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688f0f01c2d944c1855bd595c106482adf19ab881e5a1ec6be54471cd2c9d223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 1,707$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,673$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,539$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,213$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 926.2$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.24 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 569.2$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 419.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.16 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 389.74$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 284.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…1432backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 189.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 171.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 135.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 98.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 98.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 77.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 70.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 49.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 45.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 30.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 30.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 30.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 25.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4453backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.