MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2dc62a1d4a4cf960f1caeb35dda45310112da7b8f876c848cfb158bed11416a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 58c | 40,000$23,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,799.99 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 27,984$11,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,753.07 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 42c | 7,500$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 7,203$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.27 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 943.16$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.33 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 840$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 42c | 539.62$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.64 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 42c | 487.4$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 447.72$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 58c | 416.22$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 58c | 402.65$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 392$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 56c | 374.74$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 59c | 259$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 63c | 244.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 42c | 223.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 23c | 213.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 59c | 203.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 165$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 162.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 42c | 162$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 42c | 118.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 108.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 102.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…64b5backed Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Over | 42c | 83.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 42c | 82.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 70c | 78.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 57c | 74.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 71.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 43c | 69.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 72c | 69.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 79c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Under | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 61c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Over | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 42c | 25.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 59c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.