MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f7091513311c523c009f7e85a98153829b822b2d3ac35f0ecd77f3a1d2abb44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x531b…32b6backed Yes | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 51c | 4,557$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.93 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 51c | 2,300$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,199$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.15 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 51c | 2,109$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.41 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 51c | 1,752$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 49c | 1,198$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.02 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 51c | 822$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.78 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 49c | 758.2$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 48c | 697$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 51c | 651$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 284 | 52.5%149 W · 135 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked No | 53c | 567.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 53c | 491.45$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.98 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 53c | 452.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.83 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 52c | 424.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 52c | 335.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 48c | 317$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Yes | 48c | 252.93$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 53c | 226$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked No | 52c | 205.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 52c | 167$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 189 | 51.9%98 W · 91 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db0…dcffbacked No | 52c | 152.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 48c | 114.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 48c | 80.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 196 | 56.1%110 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.