NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6891659bb3633b532b25d4bc70495fd2cc051cf36d19afc11990f150cec82e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Ducks, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Flames | 55c | 562.11$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.67 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flames | 62c | 528.95$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Ducks | 38c | 506.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flames | 77c | 344.06$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Ducks | 47c | 222.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Ducks | 40c | 209.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 65c | 180.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flames | 59c | 179.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 24c | 177.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Ducks | 36c | 153.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Ducks | 38c | 134.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 34c | 110.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Flames | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Ducks | 34c | 88.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Ducks | 36c | 77.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Ducks | 34c | 73.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 65c | 54.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 66c | 52.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Flames | 65c | 45.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Ducks | 37c | 36.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flames | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Flames | 65c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flames | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Ducks | 36c | 29.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Ducks | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ducks | 37c | 28.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 63c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flames | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. DucksFlames won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.