NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa916fa541bc94c423fc2d80ab8162590b1ea0d7b7ea112a79d9c4f4de4abf22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 1,689$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.15 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,107$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 722.04$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.36 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 47c | 531.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 481.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.04 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 441.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 53c | 407.4$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 386.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 335.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 49c | 309$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 47c | 270.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 46c | 171.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 147.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 45c | 143.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 39c | 129.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 49c | 125.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 31c | 119.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…b8ccbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 52c | 96.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 86.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 77.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Under | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Under | 42c | 76.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 63.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Under | 51c | 55.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…3b5fbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 26c | 46.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 46.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 25c | 46.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 39.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 32c | 33.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Under | 49c | 32.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Under | 48c | 31.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 73c | 31.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…1100backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. DucksFlames won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.