MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b5892d4ed813f235ce955225587b252e4b59584bbb59b51d4a964131bedc3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 15,157$7,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,029.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 14,230$7,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,486.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 3,081$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 2,589$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 2,144$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.8 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 1,616$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 901.75$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 615.9$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.27 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 48c | 574.23$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 530.97$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 48c | 474.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.93 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 79c | 444.51$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 53c | 319$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 315.69$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Over | 49c | 278.96$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 205$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 53c | 166.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Under | 47c | 158.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 53c | 145$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 47c | 125.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 125.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 56c | 96.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 72.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 44c | 61.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 53c | 51.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 43.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 39c | 42.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 53c | 39.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 30.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 47c | 29.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…6f40backed Over | 46c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…8e49backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.