MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7018c13682c0629bfa9300ad3b869272545693cec68ac69e9fac7df205d5108c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x835c…a5eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 19,657$9,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,509.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 9,448$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,148.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 8,596$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,508.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 7,055$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,628.02 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 5,228$3,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 4,639$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.49 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 4,353$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.92 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 4,345$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.05 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 3,124$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.86 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 2,131$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.05 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,402$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,239$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,055$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 673.02$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.39 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 447.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 391.6$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 353.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 351.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 311.61$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 299.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 147.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 147.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 123$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 101.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 86.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 78.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 77.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 59.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 57.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 54.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 53.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 47.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 44.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…9689backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 32.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 26.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…2ae8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.