NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c7561b0a53f3cc23ac3ce9194c0e98d4a62ab656e26373d99c483158b14d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 21,647$11,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,473.14 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,599.99 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.48 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 1,118$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 1,058$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.74 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 877$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.01 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 47c | 659.82$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.7 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 443.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 52c | 416.66$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.66 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 104.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 63.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 56.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…1425backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…e0f1backed Over | 53c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…8a7fbacked Under | 49c | 26.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…4930backed Over | 52c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…5e33backed Under | 48c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…d049backed Under | 48c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 21.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…8e6dbacked Under | 48c | 21.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…f569backed Over | 53c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…2b98backed Over | 53c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. FlamesFlames won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.