NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e1d5750d15d1054fc1574a8ec287ba0c582201c638a9638094477fe94d5472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e84…2b5dbacked Under | 52c | 12,650$6,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,578 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…5340backed Over | 48c | 12,614$6,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,550.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Under | 56c | 9,850$5,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,470.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 44c | 5,376$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,010.4 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 45c | 4,933$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.21 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 53c | 2,399$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 1,937$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.7 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,899$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Over | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 55c | 546$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 49c | 410.01$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 395.13$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 47c | 394.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…3a1abacked Under | 50c | 277.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 50c | 262$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 19c | 214.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 172.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 51.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. OilersOilers won
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.