Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690a0eecffdcd3d1ae61c8491e3ab5ef1621b0593a493cf08c079314ff4fdf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 518.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 6c | 515.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 386.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 30c | 326.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 308.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 9c | 291.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 19c | 281.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 270$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 25c | 237.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed Yes | 44c | 220.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 36c | 205.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 191.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 43c | 172.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 145.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 10c | 142.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 128.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 25c | 128.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 115.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 56c | 106.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 99.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 52c | 96.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 92.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 87.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 43c | 83.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 13c | 82.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 43c | 82.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 72.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 65.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 24c | 59.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 61c | 56.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 56.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 41c | 53.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 78c | 52.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 51.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 50.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 39c | 50.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 50.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 53c | 40.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 34.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 34c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 31.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 49c | 28.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 53c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 26.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 79c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 60c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.