Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75f01257c3d2193f209932f25fc88f101609d15081ed2243137b08ce58d56d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 827.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 776.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 2c | 531.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 18c | 299.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 68c | 206.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 72c | 199.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 193.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 147.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 132.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 29c | 128.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 115.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 111.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 15c | 103.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 99.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 78.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 75.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 35c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 58.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 71c | 52.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 51.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 49.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 33c | 47.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 34c | 47.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 32c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 25c | 40.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 71c | 37.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 36.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 32c | 33.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…d942backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 27.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 75c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 24.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 67c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 68c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.