Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d757069d4823c8c00994fc6e725e7505fff667d6cabcd3be3e1b0e98f6a26c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 1c | 10,066$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 3,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 8c | 1,330$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 4c | 1,134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 779.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 744.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 31c | 703.24$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.85 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 457.14$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 434.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 3c | 427.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 408.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 379.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 11c | 354.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 347.32$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes | 67c | 314.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 262.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 16c | 249.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 249.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 35c | 242.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.83 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 78c | 230.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 228.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 216.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 11c | 211.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 198.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 67c | 192.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 5c | 191.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 190.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 178.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 15c | 174.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 30c | 162.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 142.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 133.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…a57ebacked No | 28c | 132.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 115.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 10c | 110.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 22c | 108.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 28c | 105.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 55c | 100.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 80.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 68c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 79c | 70.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 79c | 68.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed No | 31c | 68.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 28c | 63.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 61.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 61.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…bde0backed Yes | 72c | 55.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 50.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 79c | 42.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 65c | 33.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…4f40backed Yes | 71c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 62c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 59c | 29.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 69c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 78c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc284…c43fbacked Yes | 67c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.