MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691ec25cfab7181d535e66c3a2bcc2601509efb8eed8d78e951880bb98d6448c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 4,505$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.83 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 3,333$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 2,654$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.04 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,967$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.53 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 1,859$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 1,339$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 833.65$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 584.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 576.96$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 451.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.09 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 374.79$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 332.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 279$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 248.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 234.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 220$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 218$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 196.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 186$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 177$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 152.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 149.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 120.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 115.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 87.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 86.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 80.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 63.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 53.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Colorado Rockies | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 47.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 41.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 37.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 34.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 33.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 31.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 27.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…6a31backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.