TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nova Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nova Esportsof Nova Esports, FunPlus Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2eaa…2094backed FunPlus Phoenix50c12,480$6,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,204.511216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Nova Esports57c8,385$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,615.1528955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked FunPlus Phoenix57c4,211$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.2912155.4%67 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nova Esports43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nova Esports37c1,301$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.6339042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed Nova Esports45c892.03$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.647656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed FunPlus Phoenix57c883.53$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9911747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FunPlus Phoenix55c877.84$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Nova Esports45c850.79$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9325660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Nova Esports57c825$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.614348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Nova Esports50c801.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.2217853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Nova Esports45c792$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.68144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked FunPlus Phoenix43c776.05$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.242356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Nova Esports45c715$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.2533153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed FunPlus Phoenix35c699.97$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9915358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Nova Esports35c633.35$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.322344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked FunPlus Phoenix2c538.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7428743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff95…859cbacked Nova Esports45c501.22$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6712056.7%68 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nova Esports57c499.02$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1268949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nova Esports55c477.22$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.261,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Nova Esports39c417$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2223644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Nova Esports56c412.55$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5549255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c410.71$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23013455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Nova Esports50c400$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4179650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Nova Esports40c399.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3552050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Nova Esports36c399.11$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.439551.6%49 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked FunPlus Phoenix50c393.41$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.397234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nova Esports40c384.82$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.2757151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Nova Esports41c384.44$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9955348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Nova Esports38c372$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.5442140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Nova Esports39c366.07$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.739838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed FunPlus Phoenix54c337.48$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.45738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Nova Esports41c327.95$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.2233838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed FunPlus Phoenix57c302.49$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.422846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked FunPlus Phoenix55c299.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.996347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Nova Esports38c299.02$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3777744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nova Esports56c278.88$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.561,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Nova Esports37c277$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0574642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Nova Esports43c260.58$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8817640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Nova Esports58c234$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8413662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Nova Esports38c215$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13414850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Nova Esports64c210.94$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9425336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FunPlus Phoenix39c189$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2855637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked FunPlus Phoenix47c180.84$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed FunPlus Phoenix56c173$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.884944.9%22 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85a9…4e21backed FunPlus Phoenix65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…aea9backed FunPlus Phoenix31c129.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…7972backed FunPlus Phoenix56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Nova Esports46c108.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4713540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nova Esports42c107.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.286747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…af90backed FunPlus Phoenix56c107.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed FunPlus Phoenix57c106.33$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9411637.9%44 W · 72 L-15.5wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Nova Esports76c105.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.262171.4%15 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FunPlus Phoenix36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3638950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Nova Esports36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6440254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Nova Esports43c90.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.731127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27a4…d44cbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nova Esports55c86.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Nova Esports38c86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.331,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…2b32backed Nova Esports54c81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac06…f93dbacked FunPlus Phoenix43c78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.544334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked FunPlus Phoenix26c76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5830835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Nova Esports50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1366650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked FunPlus Phoenix58c75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.520138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked FunPlus Phoenix26c74.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5621136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Nova Esports42c73.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.817347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed FunPlus Phoenix27c72.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3926932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nova Esports36c72.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.641,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked FunPlus Phoenix57c71.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9816451.8%85 W · 79 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Nova Esports31c70.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3121641.7%90 W · 126 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b6…d353backed FunPlus Phoenix58c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.625146.6%117 W · 134 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed FunPlus Phoenix50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa571…404cbacked Nova Esports64c68.94$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nova Esports75c68.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.271,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed Nova Esports35c68.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.43036.7%11 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked FunPlus Phoenix44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011735%41 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Nova Esports45c64.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.685464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nova Esports28c63.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2720439.2%80 W · 124 L-18.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed FunPlus Phoenix26c60.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3816144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Nova Esports45c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Nova Esports55c56.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5613043.8%57 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa718…baf1backed Nova Esports50c56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.751957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9755…ab85backed FunPlus Phoenix45c54.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.332040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FunPlus Phoenix29c53.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed FunPlus Phoenix56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed FunPlus Phoenix56c49.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FunPlus Phoenix47c48.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9715147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked Nova Esports45c46.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.642878.6%22 W · 6 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+45.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1298…97b6backed Nova Esports43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.512445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc815…ecfabacked Nova Esports45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4416452.4%86 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed Nova Esports45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4421859.2%129 W · 89 L+14.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed FunPlus Phoenix57c42.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4313446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Nova Esports62c41.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.732642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Nova Esports72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.234571%245 W · 100 L-1.5wins0.00per pick71cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb6…2ea0backed Nova Esports60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ab…4122backed Nova Esports38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.83053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef8…64a6backed FunPlus Phoenix66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Nova Esports43c36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.529040%36 W · 54 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97a2…fbd2backed FunPlus Phoenix56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked FunPlus Phoenix51c32.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4420553.2%109 W · 96 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.