MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6969570193a4eeff4bcdec2a07a8670d9043c69bef030b4d3b01a37aaf9b079a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Rockies | 31c | 9,000$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 69c | 8,000$5,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rockies | 31c | 7,143$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Padres | 65c | 2,983$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.95 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Rockies | 35c | 2,977$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Padres | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Padres | 69c | 1,775$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.32 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 69c | 1,095$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padres | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Rockies | 2c | 749.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padres | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Padres | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rockies | 34c | 420.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockies | 31c | 396.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Padres | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Rockies | 32c | 327.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rockies | 33c | 299.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Padres | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Padres | 69c | 204.37$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rockies | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rockies | 33c | 152.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Padres | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Padres | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Padres | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…c4bdbacked Padres | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Padres | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…5e6fbacked Rockies | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Rockies | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…5878backed Padres | 69c | 90.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…e964backed Padres | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Padres | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Padres | 69c | 64.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Padres | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Padres | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Padres | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…3091backed Padres | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Padres | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…4a1abacked Padres | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Padres | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Padres | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.