TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No70c12,671$8,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,889.175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes32c8,270$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,614.963,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes18c3,558$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.191,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1b…62c9backed Yes18c3,339$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No37c3,160$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.741,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bc…db0abacked Yes19c2,968$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes34c2,941$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.18650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes74c2,666$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.7722669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No77c2,504$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.836167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No21c2,011$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.4249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No6c1,972$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.735623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes19c1,579$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.952142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes25c1,561$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.1953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes58c1,407$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No31c1,109$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Yes49c606.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.621741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes69c600$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.322475%18 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3357057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes18c381$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No32c363.49$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2623842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No66c306.66$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.127646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes74c290.88$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.651758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes18c272.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1634342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No37c239.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.881,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No32c219.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.15446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No71c205.72$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2444655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No78c196.39$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes20c183.92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8114734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes59c179.35$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.98665.1%56 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes34c161.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.572339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…fc48backed Yes31c160$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.411741.9%49 W · 68 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes71c159.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0632…d1b7backed Yes32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Yes34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.062835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Yes59c144$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.684187.8%36 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+50.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Yes35c143.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.571533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes47c126.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.398158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No21c124.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.188541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes19c120$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.614756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6512635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes35c114.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes22c113.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.641741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+73.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No21c113.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked No34c104$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.322755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1238845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked No34c97.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.262450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aea…17f6backed Yes19c97.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No58c97.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.527554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes18c90.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.214837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No58c88.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Yes34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.244235.7%15 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Yes34c81.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.813138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No80c81.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4680…e592backed No63c79.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.063060%18 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes19c78.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes35c74.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.294037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ad…8dddbacked No25c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No48c64.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2622221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.522025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.520540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.824330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2807…27d5backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x452f…b277backed Yes19c57.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.895945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes35c57.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.563046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No27c56.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2628822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes47c55.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.384151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8766…0ef8backed Yes33c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.851464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee6…1678backed Yes33c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdf…5bddbacked Yes28c53.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…21a1backed Yes48c52.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.01757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed No40c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ad…9636backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315d…b420backed Yes32c46.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No28c45.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.824541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Yes62c42.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.211353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa399…b304backed Yes71c41.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cab…f004backed Yes68c40.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301850%9 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc62e…108dbacked No39c36.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No36c35.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8138151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Yes46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.951855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No37c33.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3219254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6b…591abacked Yes34c33.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+95.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No65c28.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8594…3733backed Yes73c27.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf52…555ebacked Yes76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+102.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked No77c25.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd2…088dbacked Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes78c20.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ab…10c8backed No56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.