Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d930c743525247d737822c0d11821db5277a2aac82798b512fe9afd377af83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 8,372$6,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.36 | 2,068 | 36.7%758 W · 1,310 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…f1e2backed Yes | 19c | 2,427$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 2,177$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.49 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 108 | 25%27 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 763.16$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 584 | 29.1%170 W · 414 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 731 | 33.8%247 W · 484 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 8c | 499.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…8a37backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…2968backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 350.02$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 2,361 | 46.8%1,106 W · 1,255 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Yes | 10c | 259.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…04e3backed No | 75c | 211.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 75c | 194$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 75c | 183$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 945 | 43.1%407 W · 538 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 11c | 154.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 148.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 122.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 5,655 | 42%2,376 W · 3,279 L | +75.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 12c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,278 | 39.5%505 W · 773 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed7…de1cbacked Yes | 21c | 93.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 74c | 61.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…f02fbacked Yes | 17c | 58.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…929bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…1f55backed No | 75c | 45.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed4…8f43backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…77c8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…9c1bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 53.3%534 W · 467 L | +23.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21?Yes won
- Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.