Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1447488ecccadf534e26c577e7b75ee158393368e947fd99e430c69993ed05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 13c | 1,169$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dc…9c9cbacked No | 17c | 1,159$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Yes | 74c | 998.15$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 73c | 684.17$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 25c | 683.5$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 10c | 582.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 42c | 528.94$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 34c | 337.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 267.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 15c | 232.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 10c | 195.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 8c | 180.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9872…ef86backed No | 19c | 162.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…dc2abacked No | 21c | 137.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 13c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 112.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 21c | 97.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 92.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 12c | 91.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 16c | 66.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 26c | 57.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 78c | 50.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 37c | 49.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 43c | 34.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed No | 37c | 34.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…e1f6backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…e7e8backed Yes | 78c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of February?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.