Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ae9753d79a40634661a2ed6c7becb55ec73a68887edee46ab26fdce9e2bad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 42c | 2,021$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.71 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 602.13$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.38 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 50c | 577.45$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.95 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Yes | 70c | 338.04$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 327.03$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 29c | 252.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Yes | 62c | 200.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 49c | 196.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked No | 26c | 161.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde8…ac59backed Yes | 29c | 146.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 36c | 138.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 56c | 128.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…c78abacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 44c | 114.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 35c | 111.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed No | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 35c | 88.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 40c | 73.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Yes | 68c | 51.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 66c | 48.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 45.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 41.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087d…5d77backed Yes | 75c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 56c | 35.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed Yes | 67c | 32.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…7910backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 44c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…bbd5backed No | 74c | 27.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 57c | 23.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…c904backed Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8f7fbacked Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…493fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of February?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of February?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 end of February?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.