Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a16ca6cc2ab20f9b61f3313d274dd7d4655a71e1447487a87a0c33e62c9f4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 607.6$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 77c | 306.6$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 231.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 74c | 204.16$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 170.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 164.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 21c | 158.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 72c | 152.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 147.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 130.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 125.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 122.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 113.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 102.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 25c | 100.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 84.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 83.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…9803backed Yes | 25c | 75.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 74c | 74.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 75c | 68.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 64.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 58.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 52.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 78c | 45.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 43.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 25c | 41.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 36.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…6cc9backed Yes | 74c | 32.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 27.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 77c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 20.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 18.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 77c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.