Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73b77e55a2f9a45a1eff893c185b468b72a2051607bc24c96e7935a139020639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 631.34$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 18c | 416$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 70c | 379.19$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 355.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 59c | 337.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 59c | 317.55$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 315.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 253.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 224.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 64c | 217.3$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 202.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 195.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 194.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 153.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 134.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 60c | 127$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 14c | 107.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 44c | 104.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…0ee4backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 25c | 96.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 95.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 93.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed No | 56c | 89.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 60c | 83.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 78.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 56c | 76.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 66.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…9803backed Yes | 30c | 65.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 35c | 57.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 56.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…1257backed No | 60c | 53.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 49.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 47.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 35c | 42.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 41.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 41.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 30c | 38.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 35.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed No | 66c | 34.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 41c | 30.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 63c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 40c | 25.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 45c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 45c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 45c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 60c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 60c | 21.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 77c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 57c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.